The rapid increase in satellites and space debris is making Earth’s low-Earth orbit (LEO) increasingly unusable unless companies and nations cooperate and share essential data to manage this critical region.
The Need for Coordination
A United Nations (UN) workshop on space traffic management held in late October called for urgent action. It emphasized the creation of a comprehensive shared database of orbital objects and an international framework to monitor and manage them.
Data from Slingshot Aerospace, a U.S.-based company, reveals that over 14,000 satellites, including approximately 3,500 inactive ones, currently occupy LEO. In addition, there are about 120 million pieces of debris from launches, collisions, and wear, though only a few thousand are large enough to track.
“There is no time to hesitate in coordinating space traffic management. We must do everything possible to ensure space safety and enable information sharing among operators (both public and private) to prevent collisions,” said Aarti Holla-Maini, Director of the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs. She added that maintaining the safety of LEO is critical to preventing costly disruptions to global technology, navigation, and scientific exploration.
Challenges in Establishing Centralized Systems
Despite the urgency, no centralized system currently exists for all spacefaring nations to utilize, and persuading nations to adopt such a system remains a significant hurdle. While some countries are willing to share data, others are concerned about security risks, particularly since satellites often serve dual purposes, including military applications. Additionally, private companies aim to protect trade secrets.
Meanwhile, the situation is deteriorating. In August, a Chinese rocket stage exploded, creating thousands of debris fragments in LEO. Earlier in June, a defunct Russian satellite exploded, scattering debris that forced astronauts on the International Space Station to take shelter for an hour.
Low-Earth Orbit: A Crowded Space
LEO is the most densely populated region for human-made objects because it balances cost and distance, making it the prime target for the rapidly growing space economy. According to Slingshot, the past year saw a 17% increase in close approaches per satellite in this region.
Montreal-based NorthStar Earth & Space forecasts that tens of thousands more satellites will enter orbit in the coming years. Based on a modeled collision probability of 3.13% per year, the potential financial risk from collisions could reach $556 million over five years, with annual damages averaging $111 million.
“We are at a pivotal moment to establish rules and frameworks in space to manage growing congestion. With SpaceX’s Starlink launching thousands of satellites annually and China and other nations preparing to follow suit, we are rapidly approaching the capacity limits of key orbits,” said Stewart Bain, CEO of NorthStar.
Final Hurdles
LEO is densely packed, with frequency bands such as those used by Starlink internet satellites at altitudes of 540-570 km. As of November 27, Starlink had 6,764 satellites in orbit, according to the Jonathan’s Space Report. SpaceX data shows that Starlink satellites performed nearly 50,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers in the first half of 2024—double the number from the prior six months.
Other regions, like the 800-900 km altitude band, contain fewer satellites but harbor 3,114 objects, including inactive satellites, rocket stages, and debris, representing 20% of LEO’s total object mass. Expired satellites add to the clutter, as they remain in orbit for years before reentering Earth’s atmosphere or being relocated to a “graveyard orbit” at approximately 36,000 km altitude.
A Call for Global Cooperation
Industry experts suggest that global cooperation is essential to develop enforceable regulations, similar to the International Civil Aviation Organization’s air traffic rules. Such efforts would involve utilizing existing tools like databases, telescopes, radars, and other sensors to track objects while improving coverage, early detection, and data accuracy.
However, geopolitical tensions and hesitance to share data with adversaries, combined with commercial concerns over protecting proprietary information, remain significant barriers.
Without formal frameworks, orbital operators rely on informal or semi-formal methods for collision avoidance, such as using data from the U.S. Space Force or groups like the Space Data Association. Yet, these approaches often lead to issues like inconsistent data standards and unclear accountability.
“The biggest challenges to global cooperation on orbital object management are speed (reaching consensus takes time) and trust,” said Holla-Maini. Some nations simply cannot communicate with others on this issue, but the UN can act as a facilitator to bridge these gaps.