Many researchers believe that an asteroid could collide with Earth at any moment. Statistics indicate that an asteroid the size of a soccer ball could potentially wipe out life on Earth once every 1,000 years.
American astronomers predict that an asteroid approximately 400 meters in size could one day erase Earth’s surface. On April 13, 2029, an object currently known as Apophis will pass close to Earth, at a distance of about one-tenth the distance between Earth and the Moon. Recently, experts at the University of Michigan reported that the last time an asteroid came this close to Earth was 1,300 years ago.
The asteroid 2004 MN4, now called Apophis, is currently the closest to Earth (about 30,000 km from Earth’s center) and was recently listed under the designation 99942. This name was assigned to the asteroid on July 19, 2005. Additionally, some pharaohs from the 15th and 16th centuries were also named Apophis. Today, 99942 Apophis is the only asteroid with a specific number and name.
Recently, astronomers have been observing Apophis from various observatories on Earth to determine its orbit and the conditions that bring it close to Earth’s surface. The data collected has allowed astronomers to predict that the asteroid might collide with Earth in 2029.
Last year, researchers concluded that Apophis is among the approximately 600 celestial bodies currently considered a potential hazard to Earth. According to preliminary data, Apophis could approach Earth’s surface again in 2035, 2036, and 2037. This is the first time researchers have determined the gravitational influence of Earth on large asteroids.
Scientists believe that Earth’s gravity, along with the internal and surface gravitational forces of the asteroid, could cause it to break away from its celestial path. Observing Apophis through telescopes and other instruments allows scientists to study its internal structure and gather crucial information in case of a potential collision with Earth.
There are regions with a diameter of about 600 meters that exert gravitational influence over asteroids due to the distribution of gravitational forces in the solar system; when asteroids pass through these areas, their orbits can shift slightly. With Apophis’s 2029 trajectory above Earth, the potential deviation is thousands of kilometers in each direction. Astronomers have noted that there are three “keyholes” within this corridor that could alter the asteroid’s path and potentially result in a predicted collision in 2036.
While the asteroid is too small to completely destroy life on Earth, its collision with a part of the planet could cause significant devastation in that area. U.S. experts estimate that such an impact could result in damages up to $400 billion, along with numerous other catastrophes. Apophis will be visible from regions in Europe, Africa, and Western Asia on the night of 2029.
NASA experts are preparing to develop a nuclear missile to either destroy or significantly alter the asteroid’s orbit. It is believed that if such an intervention were launched toward Apophis before 2029, it would be sufficient to change the asteroid’s orbit by approximately 800 meters to prevent a collision with Earth in 2036. To achieve this, Apophis’s orbit would need to be altered by up to 13,000 km, which would be an extremely challenging task with current technology.
